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Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap
Report by Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Scott Janzwood, Constantin Arnscheidt, Jonathan Donges, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Christian Otto, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Nico Wunderling
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Participatory explorations of alternative futures
Book by Rick Davies, Lara Mani, Tom Hobson
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Communicating in Crisis: Community Practices of Online Participation During Extreme Events in Climate Disaster Preparedness
Book by Sora Park, Susan Atkinson, Janet Fulton, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Lara Mani
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Comment: Turning a groundswell of climate action into ground rules for net zero
Paper by Thomas Hale, Thom Wetzer, Selam Kidane Abebe, Myles Allen, Amir Amel-Zadeh, John Armour, Kaya Axelsson, Ben Caldecott, Lucilla Dias, Sam Fankhauser, Benjamin Franta, Cameron Hepburn, Kennedy Mbeva, Lavanya Rajamani, Steve Smith, Rupert Stuart-Smith
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Assessing benefits and risks between the space economies and the sustainable development goals
Paper by Tom Cernev, Jessica Bland, Gustavs Zilgalvis, Bartu Kaleagasi, Melissa de Zwart, Asaf Tzachor, Catherine Richards, Bruce Chesley, Bruce McClintock, Anca Agachi
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Computing Power and the Governance of Artificial Intelligence
Report by Girish Sastry, Lennart Heim, Haydn Belfield, Markus Anderljung, Miles Brundage, Julian Hazell, Cullen O’Keefe, Gillian K. Hadfield, Richard Ngo, Konstantin Pilz, George Gor, Emma Bluemke, Sarah Shoker, Janet Egan, Robert F. Trager, Shahar Avin, Adrian Weller, Yoshua Bengio, Diane Coyle
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Safeguarding the safeguards: How best to promote AI alignment in the public interest
Report by Oliver Guest, Michael Aird, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
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Large language models and agricultural extension services
Paper by Asaf Tzachor, M. Devare, Catherine Richards, P. Pypers, A. Ghosh, J. Koo, S. Johal, B. King
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The Ethics of Volcano Geoengineering
Paper by Lara Mani, Mike Cassidy, Anders Sandberg
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Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation
Paper by Aled Jones, Sarah Bridle, Katherine Denby, Riaz Bhunnoo, Daniel Morton, Lucy Stanbrough, Barnaby Coupe, Vanessa Pilley, Tim Benton, Pete Falloon, Tom K. Matthews, Saher Hasnain, John S. Heslop-Harrison, SJ Beard, Julie Pierce, Jules Pretty, Monika Zurek, Alexandra Johnstone, Pete Smith, Neil Gunn, Molly Watson, Edward Pope, Asaf Tzachor, Caitlin Douglas, Christian Reynolds, Neil Ward, Jez Fredenburgh, Clare Pettinger, Tom Quested, Juan Pablo Cordero, Clive Mitchell, Carrie Bewick, Cameron Brown, Christopher Brown, Paul J. Burgess, Andy Challinor, Andrew Cottrell, Thomas Crocker, Thomas George, Charles J. Godfray, Rosie S. Hails, John Ingram, Tim Lang, Fergus Lyon, Simon Lusher, Tom MacMillan, Sue Newton, Simon Pearson, Sue Pritchard, Dale Sanders, Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, Megan Steven, Alastair Trickett, Andrew Voysey, Christine Watson, Darren Whitby, Kerry Whiteside
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Predictable Artificial Intelligence
Paper by Lexin Zhou, Pablo A. Moreno-Casares, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, John Burden, Ryan Burnell, Lucy Cheke, Cèsar Ferri, Alex Marcoci, Behzad Mehrbakhsh, Yael Moros-Daval, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Danaja Rutar, Wout Schellaert, Konstantinos Voudouris, José Hernández-Orallo
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Hazards with escalation potential: Governing the drivers of global and existential catastrophes
Report by Maxime Stauffer, Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Anne-Sophie Stevance, Lara Mani, Lalitha Sundaram, Sarah Dryhurst, Konrad Seifert
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International Governance of Civilian AI: A Jurisdictional Certification Approach
Report by Robert F. Trager, Ben Harack, Anka Reuel, Allison Carnegie, Lennart Heim, Lewis Ho, Sarah Kreps, Ranjit Lall, Owen Larter, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Simon Staffell, José Jaime Villalobos
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How to reduce Africa’s undue exposure to climate risks
Paper by Asaf Tzachor, Catherine Richards, Masilin Gudoshava, Patricia Nying’uro, Herbert Misiani, Jemimah G. Ongoma, Yoav Yair, Yacob Mulugetta, Amadou T. Gaye
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Big STEM collaborations should include humanities and social science
Paper by Alex Marcoci, Ann C. Thresher, Niels C. M. Martens, Peter Galison, Sheperd S. Doeleman, Michael D. Johnson
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Video: Scoping Nuclear Weapons Choices in an Age of Existential Threats
Video by Benoît Pelopidas
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Video: Nuclear Risk Reduction in the Baltic Sea Region
Video by Artis Pabriks, Marion Messmer, Charles Clarke, Paul Ingram
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Evaluating the crisis communications campaign during the 2020–21 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent
Paper by Lara Mani, Stacey Edwards, Erouscilla Joseph, Alia Juman, Thalia Thomas
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Safely advancing a spacefaring humanity with artificial intelligence
Paper by Catherine Richards, Tom Cernev, Asaf Tzachor, Gustavs Zilgalvis, Bartu Kaleagasi
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Harms from Increasingly Agentic Algorithmic Systems
Paper by Alan Chan, Rebecca Salganik, Alva Markelius, Chris Pang, Nitarshan Rajkumar, Dmitrii Krasheninnikov, Lauro Langosco, Zhonghao He, Yawen Duan, Micah Carroll, Michelle Lin, Alex Mayhew, Katherine Collins, Maryam Molamohammadi, John Burden, Wanru Zhao, Shalaleh Rismani, Konstantinos Voudouris, Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller, David Krueger, Tegan Maharaj
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Your Prompt is My Command: On Assessing the Human-Centred Generality of Multimodal Models
Paper by Wout Schellaert, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Karina Vold, John Burden, Pablo A. M. Casares, Bao Sheng Loe, Roi Reichart, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Anna Korhonen, José Hernández-Orallo
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Predicting and reasoningabout replicability usingstructured groups
Paper by Bonnie Wintle, Eden T. Smith, Martin Bush, Fallon Mody, David P. Wilkinson, Anca M. Hanea, Alex Marcoci, Hannah Fraser, Victoria Hemming, Felix Singleton Thorn, Marissa F. McBride, Elliot Gould, Andrew Head, Daniel G. Hamilton, Steven Kambouris, Libby Rumpff, Rink Hoekstra, Mark A. Burgman, Fiona Fidler
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Model evaluation for extreme risks
Paper by Toby Shevlane, Sebastian Farquhar, Ben Garfinkel, Mary Phuong, Jess Whittlestone, Jade Leung, Daniel Kokotajlo, Nahema Marchal, Markus Anderljung, Noam Kolt, Lewis Ho, Divya Siddarth, Shahar Avin, Will Hawkins, Been Kim, Iason Gabriel, Vijay Bolina, Jack Clark, Yoshua Bengio, Paul Christiano, Allan Dafoe
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International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario
Paper by Catherine Richards, Hannes Gauch, Julian Allwood
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Synthetic biology regulation in Europe: containment, release and beyond
Paper by Lalitha Sundaram, James W Ajioka, Jennifer C Molloy
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Exploring Futures for the Science of Global Risk
Paper by SJ Beard, Nathaniel Cooke, Sarah Dryhurst, Mike Cassidy, Goodwin Gibbins, Georgiana Gilgallon, Ben Holt, Ida Josefiina, Luke Kemp, Aaron Tang, Julius Weitzdörfer, Paul Ingram, Lalitha Sundaram, Rick Davies
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Impact of the Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815 on islands and relevance to future sunlight-blocking catastrophes
Paper by Nick Wilson, Veronika Valler, Mike Cassidy, Matt Boyd, Lara Mani, Stefan Brönnimann
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Report: Building a Science-Policy Interface for tackling the Global Governance of Catastrophic and Existential Risks
Report by Clarissa Rios Rojas, Benjamin Payne, Yee Kuang Heng, Adam Fysh, Angela Kane, Jean-Marc Rickli, Kristel Fourie, Paul Ingram, Juan B. García Martínez, Mayleen Cabral, Jake Okechukwu Effoduh
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The Next Generation Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration: History, Philosophy, and Culture
Paper by Peter Galison, Juliusz Doboszewski, Jamee Elder, Niels Martens, Abhay Ashtekar, Jonas Enander, Marie Gueguen, Elizabeth A. Kessler, Roberto Lalli, Martin Lesourd, Alex Marcoci, Sebastián Murgueitio Ramírez, Priyamvada Natarajan, James Nguyen, Luis Reyes-Galindo, Sophie Ritson, Mike D. Schneider, Emilie Skulberg, Helene Sorgner, Matthew Stanley, Ann C. Thresher, Jeroen Van Dongen, James Weatherall, Jingyi Wu, Adrian Wüthrich
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Predicting reliability through structured expert elicitation with the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process
Paper by Hannah Fraser, Martin Bush, Bonnie Wintle, Fallon Mody, Eden T. Smith, Anca M. Hanea, Elliot Gould, Victoria Hemming, Daniel G. Hamilton, Libby Rumpff, David P. Wilkinson, Ross Pearson, Felix Singleton Thorn, Raquel Ashton, Aaron Willcox, Charles T. Gray, Andrew Head, Melissa Ross, Rebecca Groenewegen, Alexandru Marcoci, Ans Vercammen, Timothy H. Parker, Rink Hoekstra, Shinichi Nakagawa, David R. Mandel, Don van Ravenzwaaij, Marissa McBride, Richard O. Sinnott, Peter Vesk, Mark Burgman, Fiona Fidler
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Investigating outbreaks of initially unknown aetiology in complex settings: findings and recommendations from 10 case studies
Paper by Anne Perrocheau, Freya Jephcott, Nima Asgari-Jirhanden, Jane Greig, Nicolas Peyraud, Joanna Tempowski
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The Potential Role of Iceland in Northern Europe’s Protein Self-Sufficiency: Feasibility Study of Large-Scale Production of Spirulina in a Novel Energy-Food System
Paper by Asaf Tzachor, Catherine Richards, Asger Smidt-Jensen, Arnar Þór Skúlason, Alfons Ramel, Margrét Geirsdóttir
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A master equation for power laws
Peer-reviewed paper by Sabin Roman, Francesco Bertolotti
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Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic
Paper by Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge, Timothy M. Lenton
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Video: Aarathi Krishnan: Grey Mirror–is uncertainty about the future an opportunity for greater equality?
Video by Aarathi Krishnan, Genevieve Liveley, Ben Yeoh, Ella Saltmarshe, Jessica Bland
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New Narratives in Global Catastrophic Risk - Part 1
Report by SJ Beard, Clarissa Rios Rojas, Xiaolei Zhang, Lorena Escudero
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Reply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study
Paper by Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge,, Timothy M. Lenton
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Reply to Kelman: The foundations for studying catastrophic climate risks
Paper by Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge, Timothy M. Lenton
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Potential and limitations of digital twins to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals
Paper by Asaf Tzachor, Soheil Sabri, Catherine Richards, Abbas Rajabifard, Michele Acuto
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Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
Paper by Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge, Kristie L. Ebi, Goodwin Gibbins, Timothy A. Kohler, Johan Rockström, Marten Scheffer, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Will Steffen, Timothy M. Lenton
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How General-Purpose Is a Language Model? Usefulness and Safety with Human Prompters in the Wild
Paper by John Burden, Pablo Antonio Moreno Casares, Bao Sheng Loe, José Hernández-Orallo, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
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CCCR 2022 - Day 2 Videos
Video by Robin Gorna, Julius Weitzdörfer, Lalitha Sundaram, Jochem Rietveld, Bryan Walsh
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CCCR 2022 - Day 3 Videos
Video by Jenty Kirsch-Wood, James Ginns, Max Stauffer, Shin-Shin Hua
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CCCR 2022 - Day 1 Videos
Video by Tina Park, Jess Whittlestone, Shahar Avin, David Krueger, Joachim Isacsson
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Submission of Evidence for the UK’s Biological Security Strategy
Report by Khalisah L. Zulkefli, Tan Jaymi, Sandra López-Vergès, John H. Malone, Alexander Kagansky, Abhi Veerakumarasivam, Bartlomiej Kolodziejczyk, Clarissa Rios Rojas
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Focus of the IPCC Assessment Reports Has Shifted to Lower Temperatures
Paper by Florian U. Jehn, Luke Kemp, Ekaterina Ilin, Christoph Funk, Jason R. Wang, Lutz Breuer
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Submission of Evidence to the UK Biosecurity Strategy Call for Evidence
Report by Tom Hobson, Lalitha Sundaram, David Aldridge, Alec Christie, Brett Edwards, Malcolm Dando, Silviu Petrovan, Lijun Shang, William Sutherland, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Rebecca Smith
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Video: Paul & Scott Slovic: The More Who Die, the Less We Care
Video by Paul Slovic, Scott Slovic
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Emerging trends and technologies: a horizon scan for global public health
Report by Luke Kemp, Kai Ilchmann, Soatiana Rajatonirina, Anna Laura Ross
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When It Strikes, Are We Ready? Lessons Identified at the 7th Planetary Defense Conference in Preparing for a Near-Earth Object Impact Scenario
Peer-reviewed paper by Shirish Ravan, Tom De Groeve, Lara Mani, Einar Bjorgo, Richard Moissl, Jose Miguel Roncero, Katherine Rowan, David Schuld, Leviticus A. Lewis, Romana Kofler
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A solution scan of societal options to reduce transmission and spread of respiratory viruses: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study
Peer-reviewed paper by William Sutherland, Nigel G. Taylor, David C. Aldridge, Philip Martin, Catherine Rhodes, Gorm Shackelford, SJ Beard, Haydn Belfield, Andrew J. Bladon, Cameron Brick, Alec P. Christie, Andrew P. Dobson, Harriet Downey, Amelia S.C. Hood, Fangyuan Hua, Alice C. Hughes, Rebecca M. Jarvis, Douglas MacFarlane, Silviu O. Petrovan
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Six novel interdisciplinary resilience principles emerging from interdisciplinary exchange around post-COVID-19 centres and peripheries
Peer-reviewed paper by Meredith Root-Bernstein, François Chiron, Jianguo Liu, Lara Mani, Harini Nagendra, Catharine Ward Thompson
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Disaster Displacement and Zoonotic Disease Dynamics: The Impact of Structural and Chronic Drivers in Sindh, Pakistan
Peer-reviewed paper by Dorien H. Braam, Rafiq Chandio, Freya Jephcott, Alex Tasker, James L. N. Wood
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Filling gaps in trustworthy development of AI
Peer-reviewed paper by Shahar Avin, Haydn Belfield, Miles Brundage, Gretchen Krueger, Jasmine Wang, Adrian Weller, Markus Anderljung, Igor Krawczuk, David Krueger, Jonathan Lebensold, Tegan Maharaj, Noa Zilberman
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Mitigating losses: how scientific organisations can help address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on early-career researchers
Paper by Sandra López-Vergès, Bernardo Urbani, David Fernández Rivas, Sandeep Kaur-Ghumaan, Anna K. Coussens, Felix Moronta-Barrios, Suraj Bhattarai, Leila Niamir, Velia Siciliano, Andreea Molnar, Amanda Weltman, Meghnath Dhimal, Shalini S. Arya, Karen J. Cloete, Almas Taj Awan, Stefan Kohler, Chandra Shekhar Sharma, Clarissa Rios Rojas, Yoko Shimpuku, John Ganle, Maryam M. Matin, Justine G. Nzweundji, Abdeslam Badre, Paulina Carmona-Mora
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General intelligence disentangled via a generality metric for natural and artificial intelligence
Peer-reviewed paper by José Hernández-Orallo, Bao Sheng Loe, Lucy Cheke, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
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The Critical Role of Transparency in Addressing the Production Gap
Report by Elisa Arond, Harro van Asselt, Siân Bradley, Chandra Bushan, Fergus Green, Ipek Gençsü, Aarti Gupta, Patrick Heller, Robin Hocquet, Natalie Jones, Angela Picciariello, David Manley, Georgia Piggot, Robert Schuwerk, Romain Weikmans
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WHO: Emerging Technologies and Dual-Use Concerns
Report by Luke Kemp, Kai Ilchmann, Soatiana Rajatonirina, Anna Laura Ross
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Government Support and Policies For Fossil Fuel Production
Report by Chandra Bushan, Lucile Dufour, Lisa Fischer, Ipek Gençsü, Patrick Heller, Robin Hocquet, Natalie Jones, David Manley, Miquel Muñoz Cabré, Greg Muttitt, Angela Picciariello, Luma Ramos, Leo Roberts, Bronwen Tucker
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Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research
Peer-reviewed paper by Florian U Jehn, Marie Schneider, Jason R Wang, Luke Kemp, Lutz Breuer
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Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production
Report by Natalie Jones, Miquel Muñoz Cabré, Georgia Piggot, Michael Lazarus
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Ten tips for overcoming language barriers in science
Paper by Tatsuya Amano, Clarissa Rios Rojas, Yap Boum II, Margarita Calvo, Biswapriya B. Misra
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Special Section: Population and Ethics in The Journal of Development Studies
Paper by SJ Beard, Partha Dasgupta, Natalie Jones, Diana Coole, Elizabeth Cripps, Martin Kolk, Mark Budolfson, Dean Spears
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Future Proof: the opportunity to transform the UK's resilience to extreme risks
Report by Toby Ord, Angus Mercer, Sophie Dannreuther, Haydn Belfield, Jess Whittlestone, Jade Leung, Markus Anderljung, Cassidy Nelson, Gregory Lewis, Piers Millett, Sam Hilton
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Safety-driven design of machine learning for sepsis treatment
Paper by John Burden, Yan Jia, Tom Lawton, John McDermid, Ibrahim Habli
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Research community dynamics behind popular AI benchmarks
Peer-reviewed paper by Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Pablo Barredo, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, José Hernández-Orallo
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Using AI ethically to tackle covid-19
Paper by Stephen Cave, Jess Whittlestone, Rune Nyrup, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Rafael A Calvo
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Does “AI” stand for augmenting inequality in the era of covid-19 healthcare?
Paper by David Leslie, Anjali Mazumder, Aidan Peppin, Maria K Wolters
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'Sunlight, but dreaming' Audio Artwork
Video by Bram Thomas Arnold, Lauren Holt
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The Societal Implications of Deep Reinforcement Learning
Peer-reviewed paper by Jess Whittlestone, Kai Arulkumaran, Matthew Crosby
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AI Reflections in 2020
Peer-reviewed paper by Asaf Tzachor, Anna Jobin, Kingson Man, Antonio Damasio, Georgios Kaissis, Rickmer Braren, Julia Stoyanovich, Jay J. Van Bavel, Tessa V. West, Brent Mittelstadt, Jason Eshraghian, Marta R. Costa-jussà, Aimun A. B. Jamjoom, Mariarosaria Taddeo, Edoardo Sinibaldi, Yipeng Hu, Miguel Luengo-Oroz
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Photosynthetically Controlled Spirulina, but Not Solar Spirulina, Inhibits TNF-α Secretion: Potential Implications for COVID-19-Related Cytokine Storm Therapy
Peer-reviewed paper by Asaf Tzachor, Or Rozen, Soliman Khatib, Sophie Jensen, Dorit Avni
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80 Questions for UK Biological Security
Paper by Luke Kemp, David C.Aldridge, Olaf Booy, Hilary Bower, Des Browne, Mark Burgmann, Austin Burt, Andrew A. Cunningham, Malcolm Dando, Jaimie T. A. Dick, Christopher Dye, Sam Weiss Evans, Belinda Gallardo, H. Charles J. Godfray, Ian Goodfellow, Simon Gubbins, Lauren Holt, Kate E. Jones, Hazem Kandil, Phillip Martin, Mark McCaughan, Caitríona McLeish, Thomas Meany, Kathryn Millett, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Nicola J. Patron, Catherine Rhodes, Helen E. Roy, Gorm Shackelford, Derek Smith, Nicola Spence, Helene Steiner, Lalitha Sundaram, Silja Voeneky, John R. Walker, Harry Watkins, Simon Whitby, James Wood, William Sutherland
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Tackling threats to informed decision-making in democratic societies: Promoting epistemic security in a technologically-advanced world
Report by Elizabeth Seger, Shahar Avin, Gavin Pearson, Mark Briers, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Helena Bacon
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Divestment: Advantages and Disadvantages for the University of Cambridge
Report by Ellen Quigley, Emily Budgen, Anthony Odgers
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Written Evidence: UK ARPA – Key Recommendations
Report by Nick Bostrom, Haydn Belfield, Sam Hilton
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The Scientometrics of AI Benchmarks: Unveiling the Underlying Mechanics of AI Research
Paper by Pablo Barredo, José Hernández-Orallo, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
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AI Paradigms and AI Safety: Mapping Artefacts and Techniques to Safety Issues
Paper by Jose Hernandez-Orallo, Fernando Martinez-Plumed, Shahar Avin, Jess Whittlestone, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
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Exploring AI Safety in Degrees: Generality, Capability and Control
Paper by John Burden, José Hernández-Orallo
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Existential Risk Assessment: A reply to Baum
Peer-reviewed paper by SJ Beard, Thomas Rowe, James Fox
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Response to the European Commission’s consultation on AI
Report by Haydn Belfield, José Hernández-Orallo, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Matthijs M. Maas, Jess Whittlestone
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Point of View: Bioengineering horizon scan 2020
Peer-reviewed paper by Luke Kemp, Laura Adam, Christian R. Boehm, Rainer Breitling, Rocco Casagrande, Malcolm Dando, Appolinaire Djikeng, Nicholas Evans, Richard Hammond, Kelly Hills, Lauren Holt, Todd Kuiken, Alemka Markotić, Piers Millett, Johnathan A Napier, Cassidy Nelson, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Anne Osbourn, Megan Palmer, Nicola J Patron, Edward Perello, Wibool Piyawattanametha, Vanessa Restrepo-Schild, Clarissa Rios Rojas, Catherine Rhodes, Anna Roessing, Deborah Scott, Philip Shapira, Christopher Simuntala, Robert DJ Smith, Lalitha Sundaram, Eriko Takano, Gwyn Uttmark, Bonnie Wintle, Nadia B Zahra, William Sutherland
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Public Mental Health and COVID-19: a compassion based approach to recovery and resilience
Report by SJ Beard, Kate Brierton, Paul Gilbert, Felicia Huppert
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Toward Trustworthy AI: Mechanisms for Supporting Verifiable Claims
Report by Miles Brundage, Shahar Avin, Jasmine Wang, Haydn Belfield, Gretchen Krueger, Gillian Hadfield, Heidy Khlaaf, Jingying Yang, Helen Toner, Ruth Fong, Tegan Maharaj, Pang Wei Koh, Sara Hooker, Jade Leung, Andrew Trask, Emma Bluemke, Jon Lebensold, Cullen O'Keefe, Mark Koren, Théo Ryffel, JB Rubinovitz, Tamay Besiroglu, Federica Carugati, Jack Clark, Peter Eckersley, Sarah de Haas, Martiza Johnson, Ben Laurie, Alex Ingerman, Igor Krawczuk, Amanda Askell, Rosario Cammarota, Andrew Lohn, Shagun Sodhani, Charlotte Stix, Peter Henderson, Logan Graham, Carina Prunkl, Bianca Martin, Elizabeth Seger, Noa Zilberman, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Frens Kroeger, Girish Sastry, Rebecca Kagan, Adrian Weller, Brian Tse, Beth Barnes, Allan Dafoe, Paul Scharre, Martijn Rasser, David Kreuger, Carrick Flynn, Ariel Herbert-Voss, Thomas Krendl Gilbert, Lisa Dyer, Saif Khan, Markus Anderljung, Yoshua Bengio
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Informing management of lockdowns and a phased return to normality: a Solution Scan of non-pharmaceutical options to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission
Report by William Sutherland, David C. Aldridge, Philip Martin, Catherine Rhodes, Gorm Shackelford, SJ Beard, Andrew J. Bladon, Cameron Brick, Mark Burgman, Alec P. Christie, Lynn V. Dicks, Andrew P. Dobson, Harriet Downey, Fangyuan Hua, Amelia S.C. Hood, Alice C. Hughes, Rebecca M. Jarvis, Douglas MacFarlane, Anne-Christine Mupepele, William H. Morgan, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Stefan J. Marciniak, Cassidy Nelson, Clarissa Rios Rojas, Katherine A. Sainsbury, Rebecca K. Smith, Lalitha Sundaram, Hannah Tankard, Nigel G. Taylor, Ann Thornton, John Watkins, Thomas B. White, Kate Willott, Silviu O. Petrovan, Haydn Belfield
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Embrace experimentation in biosecurity governance
Peer-reviewed paper by Sam Weiss Evans, Jacob Beal, Kavita Berger, Diederik A. Bleijs, Alessia Cagnetti, Francesca Ceroni, Gerald L. Epstein, Natàlia Garcia-Reyero, David R. Gillum, Graeme Harkess, Nathan J. Hillson, Petra A. M. Hogervorst, Jacob L. Jordan, Geneviève Lacroix, Rebecca Moritz, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Megan J. Palmer, Mark W. J. van Passel
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Why is the Doomsday Clock the closest its ever been to Midnight?
Video by Rachel Bronson
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To Divest or to Engage? A Case Study of Investor Responses to Climate Activism
Peer-reviewed paper by David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, Ellen Quigley
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Accumulating evidence using crowdsourcing and machine learning: a living bibliography about existential risk and global catastrophic risk
Peer-reviewed paper by Gorm Shackelford, Luke Kemp, Catherine Rhodes, Lalitha Sundaram, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, SJ Beard, Haydn Belfield, Julius Weitzdörfer, Shahar Avin, Dag Sørebø, Elliot M. Jones, John B. Hume, David Price, David Pyle, Daniel Hurt, Theodore Stone, Harry Watkins, Lydia Collas, William Sutherland
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Grethe Helene Evjen: Svalbard Global Seed Vault - Saving Seeds for Eternity (18 Nov 2019)
Video by Grethe Helene Evjen
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Policy options to close the production gap
Report by Ploy Achakulwisut, Harro van Asselt, Peter Christoff, Richard Denniss, Fergus Green, Natalie Jones, Georgia Piggot, Oliver Sartor, Fernando Tudela, Cleo Verkuijl, Oscar Widerberg
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Learning from the Climate Change Debate to Avoid Polarisation on Negative Emissions
Peer-reviewed paper by R.M. Colvin, Luke Kemp, Anita Talberg, Clare De Castella, C. Downie, S. Friel, Will J. Grant, Mark Howden, Frank Jotzo, Francis Markham, Michael J. Platow
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How soon will the ice apocalypse come? (CCCR2018)
Video by Tamsin Edwards
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Understanding Risk for effective communication (CCCR2018)
Video by Kristel Fourie
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Communicating (Existential) Risks Responsibly (CCCR2018)
Video by Alexandra Freeman
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Black Elephants (CCCR2018)
Video by Peter Ho
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Discounting, aggregation and the ecological fallacy (CCCR2018)
Video by Matthew Rendall
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Assessing contributions of major emitters' Paris‐era decisions to future temperature extremes
Peer-reviewed paper by Sophie C. Lewis, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Glenn Althor, Andrew D. King, Luke Kemp
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Special Issue: Existential risk to humanity
Peer-reviewed paper by Olle Häggström, Catherine Rhodes
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Extremes
Book by Duncan Needham, Julius Weitzdörfer
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A Proposal for International AI Governance
Report by Luke Kemp, Peter Cihon, Matthijs Michiel Maas, Haydn Belfield, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Jade Leung
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Business School Rankings for the 21st Century
Report by David Pitt-Watson, Ellen Quigley
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Surveying Safety-relevant AI Characteristics
Peer-reviewed paper by Jose Hernandez-Orallo, Fernando Martınez-Plumed, Shahar Avin, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
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Bridging near- and long-term concerns about AI
Paper by Stephen Cave, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
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The environmental costs and benefits of high-yield farming
Peer-reviewed paper by Andrew Balmford, Tatsuya Amano, Harriet Bartlett, Dave Chadwick, Adrian Collins, David Edwards, Rob Field, Philip Garnsworthy, Rhys Green, Pete Smith, Helen Waters, Andrew Whitmore, Donald M. Broom, Julian Chara, Tom Finch, Emma Garnett, Alfred Gathorne-Hardy, Juan Hernandez-Medrano, Mario Herrero, Fangyuan Hua, Agnieszka Latawiec, Tom Misselbrook, Ben Phalan, Benno I. Simmons, Taro Takahashi, James Vause, Erasmus zu Ermgassen, Rowan Eisner
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Mapping Intelligence: Requirements and Possibilities
Peer-reviewed paper by Sankalp Bhatnagar, Anna Alexandrova, Shahar Avin, Stephen Cave, Lucy Cheke, Matthew Crosby, Jan Feyereisl, Marta Halina, Bao Sheng Loe, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Huw Price, Henry Shevlin, Adrian Weller, Alan Winfield, José Hernández-Orallo
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The Facets of Artificial Intelligence: A Framework to Track the Evolution of AI
Peer-reviewed paper by Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Bao Sheng Loe, Peter Flach, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Karina Vold, José Hernández-Orallo
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Ten‐year assessment of the 100 priority questions for global biodiversity conservation
Peer-reviewed paper by Tommaso Jucker, Bonnie Wintle, Gorm Shackelford, Pierre Bocquillon, Jan Laurens Geffert, Tim Kasoar, Eszter Kovacs, Hannah S. Mumby, Chloé Orland, Judith Schleicher, Eleanor R. Tew, Aiora Zabala, Tatsuya Amano, Martina Kunz, Alexandra Bell, Boris Bongalov, Josephine M. Chambers, Colleen Corrigan, América P. Durán, Leslie‐Anne Duvic‐Paoli, Caroline Emilson, Erik J.S. Emilson, Jéssica Fonseca da Silva, Emma E. Garnett, Elizabeth J. Green, Miriam K. Guth, Andrew Hacket‐Pain, Amy Hinsley, Javier Igea, Martina Kunz, Sarah H. Luke, William Lynam, Philip A. Martin, Matheus H. Nunes, Nancy Ockendon, Aly Pavitt, Charlotte L.R. Payne, Victoria Plutshack, Tim T. Rademacher, Rebecca J. Robertson, David C. Rose, Anca Serban, Benno I. Simmons, Catherine Tayleur, Claire F.R. Wordley, Nibedita Mukherjee
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Accounting for the Neglected Dimensions of AI Progress
Paper by Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Shahar Avin, Miles Brundage, Allan Dafoe, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, José Hernández-Orallo
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Measuring changes in urban functional capacity for climate resilience: Perspectives from Korea
Peer-reviewed paper by Donghyun Kim, Seul-Ki Song
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Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for existential risk research
Peer-reviewed paper by Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Cedervall Lauta, Matthijs Michiel Maas
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The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments
Peer-reviewed paper by Anca M. Hanea, Marissa F. McBride, Mark A. Burgman, Bonnie Wintle
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Ingredients for Understanding Brain and Behavioral Evolution: Ecology, Phylogeny, and Mechanism
Peer-reviewed paper by Stephen H. Montgomery, Adrian Currie, Dieter Lukas, Neeltje Boogert, Andrew Buskell, Fiona R. Cross, Sarah Jelbert, Shahar Avin, Rafael Mares, Ana F. Navarrete, Shuichi Shigeno, Corina J. Logan
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Beyond Brain Size: Uncovering the Neural Correlates of Behavioral and Cognitive Specialization
Peer-reviewed paper by Corina J. Logan, Shahar Avin, Neeltje Boogert, Andrew Buskell, Fiona R. Cross, Adrian Currie, Sarah Jelbert, Dieter Lukas, Rafael Mares, Ana F. Navarrete, Shuichi Shigeno, Stephen H. Montgomery
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Preserving the norm against chemical weapons: A civil society initiative for the 2018 4th review conference of the chemical weapons convention
Peer-reviewed paper by Michael Crowley, Lijun Shang, Malcolm Dando
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The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation
Peer-reviewed paper by Miles Brundage, Shahar Avin, Jack Clark, Helen Toner, Peter Eckersley, Ben Garfinkel, Allan Dafoe, Paul Scharre, Thomas Zeitzoff, Bobby Filar, Hyrum Anderson, Heather Roff, Gregory C. Allen, Jacob Steinhardt, Carrick Flynn, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, SJ Beard, Haydn Belfield, Sebastian Farquhar, Clare Lyle, Rebecca Crootof, Owain Evans, Michael Page, Joanna Bryson, Roman Yampolskiy, Dario Amodei
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How to (Re)Use Big Data
Video by Sabina Leonelli
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Governance explains variation in national responses to the biodiversity crisis
Peer-reviewed paper by Zachary Baynham-Herd, Tatsuya Amano, William Sutherland, Paul F. Donald
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Accompanying technology development in the Human Brain Project: From foresight to ethics management
Peer-reviewed paper by Christine Aicardi, B. Tyr Fothergill, Stephen Rainey, Bernd Carsten Stahl, Emma Harris
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Representation of future generations in United Kingdom policy-making
Peer-reviewed paper by Natalie Jones, Mark O'Brien, Thomas Ryan
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Does governance play a role in the distribution of invasive alien species?
Peer-reviewed paper by Thomas Evans, Philine zu Ermgassen, Tatsuya Amano, Kelvin S.-H. Peh
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Interventions that may prevent or mollify supervolcanic eruptions
Peer-reviewed paper by David Denkenberger, Robert W Blair Jr
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Existential risk due to ecosystem collapse: Nature strikes back
Peer-reviewed paper by Peter Kareiva, Valerie Carranza
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Global catastrophic and existential risks communication scale
Peer-reviewed paper by Alexey Turchin, David Denkenberger
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Successful conservation of global waterbird populations depends on effective governance
Peer-reviewed paper by Tatsuya Amano, Tamás Székely, Brody Sandel, Szabolcs Nagy, Taej Mundkur, Tom Langendoen, Daniel Blanco, Candan U. Soykan, William Sutherland
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Point of View: A transatlantic perspective on 20 emerging issues in biological engineering
Peer-reviewed paper by Bonnie Wintle, Catherine Rhodes, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Christian R. Boehm, William Sutherland, Robert Doubleday, Jennifer C Molloy, Piers Millett, Laura Adam, Rainer Breitling, Rob Carlson, Rocco Casagrande, Malcolm Dando, Eric Drexler, Brett Edwards, Tol Ellis, Nicholas G Evans, Richard Hammond, Jim Haseloff, Linda Kahl, Todd Kuiken, Benjamin R Lichman, Colette A Matthewman, Johnathan A Napier, Nicola J Patron, Edward Perello, Philip Shapira, Joyce Tait, Eriko Takano
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A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol
Peer-reviewed paper by Victoria Hemming, Bonnie Wintle, Mark A. Burgman, Anca M. Hanea, Marissa F. McBride
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Deep Learning: Artificial Intelligence Meets Human Intelligence
Video by Terrence Sejnowski
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Responsibility and Inequality in a Risky World
Video by Heather Douglas
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Overpopulation: A Driver of Climate Change?
Video by Hilary Greaves
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In defence of story-telling
Peer-reviewed paper by Adrian Currie, Kim Sterelny
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Climate Change, Morphing into an Existential Threat
Video by Veerabhadran Ramanathan
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Metaresearch for Evaluating Reproducibility in Ecology and Evolution
Peer-reviewed paper by Fiona Fidler, Bonnie Wintle, Yung En Chee, Mark A. Burgman, Michael A. McCarthy, Ascelin Gordon
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A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity
Peer-reviewed paper by William Sutherland, Phoebe Barnard, Bonnie Wintle, Nancy Ockendon, Steven Broad, Mick Clour, Ben Connor, Isabelle Côte, Lynn Dicks, Helen Doran, Abigail Entwistle, Erica Fleishman, Marie Fox, Kevin Gaston, David Gibbons, Zhigang Jiang, Brandon Keim, Fiona Lickorish, Mark Spalding, Femke Tonneijck
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The Limits of AI
Video by Toby Walsh
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AI Safety: Past, Present, Future
Video by Victoria Krakovna
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Young Researchers & Responsible Conduct of Science: Successes and failures
Video by Zabta K. Shinwari
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Words Of Caution On Making Objects Of Security Concern
Video by Sam Weiss Evans
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Opening Session Part 2
Video by Rowan Douglas
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Extreme risk management in the policy environment
Video by Claire Craig
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Avoiding Species Extinction
Video by Peter Kareiva
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Languages Are Still a Major Barrier to Global Science
Peer-reviewed paper by Tatsuya Amano, Juan P. Gonzalez-Varo, William Sutherland
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Feeding everyone no matter what
Video by David Denkenberger
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Technology: Transparency vs Privacy
Video by Neal Katyal
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Resetting the frame
Report by Catherine Rhodes, Seth Baum, Ariel Conn, Sebastian Farquhar, Malini Mehra, Magali Reghezza, Ama Van Dantzig, Alexandra Wandel, Robert Wiblin, Kevin Wong
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Key impacts of climate engineering on biodiversity and ecosystems, with priorities for future research
Peer-reviewed paper by Caitlin G. McCormack, Wanda Born, Peter J. Irvine, Eric P. Achterberg, Tatsuya Amano, Jeff Ardron, Pru N. Foster, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Stephen J. Hawkins, Erica Hendy, W. Daniel Kissling, Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Eugene J. Murphy, Nick Ostle, Nicholas J.P. Owens, R. Ian Perry, Hans O. Pörtner, Robert J. Scholes, Frank M. Schurr, Oliver Schweiger, Josef Settele, Rebecca K. Smith, Sarah Smith, Jill Thompson, Derek P. Tittensor, Mark van Kleunen, Chris Vivian, Katrin Vohland, Rachel Warren, Andrew R. Watkinson, Steve Widdicombe, Phillip Williamson, Emma Woods, Jason J. Blackstock, William Sutherland
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Charles Kennel, Stephen Briggs Public Lecture - Planetary Vital Signs
Video by Charles Kennel, Stephen Briggs
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Lucid AI’s Ethics Advisory Panel
Video by Kay Firth-Butterfield
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Investigate Discuss Estimate Aggregate for structured expert judgement
Peer-reviewed paper by Anca Hanea, Bonnie Wintle, Marissa McBride, Mark A Burgman, Fiona Fidler, Louisa Flander, Charles R Twardy, Steven Mascaro, Brian Manning
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A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016
Peer-reviewed paper by Nancy Ockendon, Steven Broad, William Sutherland, Bonnie Wintle, Jacqueline Caine, Mike Clout, Lynn V Dicks, Helen Doran, Abigail C Entwistle, Erica Fleishman, David W Gibbons, Brandon Keim, Becky LeAnstey, Fiona A Lickorish, Kathryn A Monk, Diana Mortimer, James W Pearce-Higgins, Lloyd S Peck, Jules Pretty, Johan Rockström, Mark D Spalding, Femke H Tonneijck, Katherine E Wright
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Context-Dependent Utilities
Peer-reviewed paper by Haim Gaifman, Yang Liu
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A Global Apollo Programme To Combat Climate Change
Report by Martin Rees, David King, John Browne, Richard Layard, Gus O'Donnell, Nicholas Stern, Adair Turner
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Climate Change: A Risk Assessment
Report by David King, Daniel Schrag, Zhou Dadi, Qi Ye, Arunabha Ghosh
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Theoretical Physicist – The Theory of Everything
Video by Professor Stephen Hawking
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Climate Change and The Common Good
Report by Partha Dasgupta, Martin Rees, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Peter Raven, Mgr Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, Margaret Archer, Paul J Crutzen, Pierre Léna, Yuan Tse Lee, Mario J Molina, Jeffrey Sachs, Joachim Schellnhuber
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Risks and Benefits of Gain-of-Function Experiments in Potentially Pandemic Pathogens
Video by Derek Smith, Marc Lipsitch
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Pursuit of the common good
Peer-reviewed paper by Partha Dasgupta, Veerabhadran Ramanathan
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Unprecedented Technological Risks
Report by Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Nick Bostrom, Nick Beckstead, William MacAskill, Neil Bowerman, Owen Cotton-Barratt, Toby Ord
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