Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

Peer-reviewed paper by Florian U Jehn, Marie Schneider, Jason R Wang, Luke Kemp, Lutz Breuer
Published on 29 July 2021


We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.

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