Resetting the frame

Report by Catherine Rhodes, Seth Baum, Ariel Conn, Sebastian Farquhar, Malini Mehra, Magali Reghezza, Ama Van Dantzig, Alexandra Wandel, Robert Wiblin, Kevin Wong
Published on 10 August 2016

Executive Summary

This report considers a type of situation that the present generation has never experienced directly: one that would cause the death of 10% of humanity, or severe damage on a similar scale.

Traditional risk analysis considers the following equation: the total risk equals the magnitude of potential future damage multiplied by the probability that this damage will occur. The risks in this report deserve attention on the basis of their potential damage alone, even if the probability seems low.

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