The sure-thing principle and P2

Published on 27 July 2017

• A comparison between different formulations of the “Sure-thing principle” in Bayesian decision theory.
• An analysis of the notion of conditional preferences in Savage-style system.
• A demonstration that Savage’s “sure-thing principal” (STP) is structurally different from his second postulate (P2).

This paper offers a fine analysis of different versions of the well known sure-thing principle. We show that Savage’s formal formulation of the principle, i.e., his second postulate (P2), is strictly stronger than what is intended originally.

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